Oil prices will go down to €10 per barrel

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The oil producing countries are in for a shock!


When you read or watch the news and you hear and see that the major oil producing countries are reducing oil production in an effort to raise prices, you would think that the €100 per barrel is an achievable goal.

But it is a sympton and confirmation that oil prices are slowly but steadily dropping. Not that it cannot have one or two upside hiccups, but it is going down.

Why? There is a good reason for this. When the oilprices hit an all time high of €161 per barrel in june 2008 (https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart)  it set of a chain of events. It made people realise that things had to change and many people around the globe set off to do just that. Now in june 2017, we can see a number of trend getting a firm foothold.

Houses are going to be energy self sufficient within the next 15 years. Indeed, they going to be little energy suppliers by themselves. With solar roof panelling they will provide excess energy. Electricity power will be generated by homes. Batteries will become more efficient in the next 5 years and affordable to store energy for the homes so that they will provide electricity during evenings and night.
Cars will become mainly electrical and be power charged by the power generated by the homes. 
Car parks will have solar power loading points. 
Once electric cars will reach a price point of €10.000 then people will start to massively buy electric cars. Others will make use of self driving electric cars as a service. 

When people start using solar power for their cars generated by their own homes then they will drive for 'free'! Petrol based engines will fade out.

The same is happening with trucks and lorries. 
This development will take another 5 years at least but is inevitable. 

Shipping will slowly transform to Natural Gas based engines or Hydrogen based engines. Diesel will still be the main form of propulsion for the years to come. Public transport will also be powered by renewable energy. 

North West Europe is converting in a huge way to wind powered energy supply in the North Sea. This in combination with solar energy will soon (between 2030 and 2050) be able to account for more than 90% of daily energy needs.

Oil will still be needed for chemicals and plastics. But also in this area other materials are making a headway. Heavy industry as a whole is becoming cleaner but still dependent on oil for the next 10-20 years. So the Oil industry will decline but not vanish. There will be demand for the product which can easily be covered by Saudi Arabia alone and they have the least production costs. Oil prices will reach the $10 per barrel long before 2030. As soon as the energy shift has reached 10% of daily needs then there will be a surplus of oil and drive the prices down.

So all these developments will have a huge impact on the Oil and Gas Industry as a whole, leading to a significant reduction of oil production. Real CO2 reductions may after all not be impossible to achieve!

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